The Road Ahead

Do regimes exist in reality or just in hindsight? Can one reliably profit from correctly identifying them and if so how?

On a 12-month view, 4.3%. But more important than a spuriously precise ‘right’ answer are the frameworks for thinking about benchmark costs of money.

2024. A bad year for beta. Bonds to outperform equities, but neither will return more than low single digits. Risk parity over 60/40. More alternatives. Careful of gap risk.

The inverse link between real rates and the equity multiple. The same for gold. The positive correlation between credit conditions and real GDP growth. All these relationships have recently broken. Re-coupling would require some big moves. Will old flames be rekindled?

Sam Altman thinks ChatGPT can increase productivity by 20%. We discuss how we monitor productivity ahead of the official data. Economy-wide, there’s not yet much to see.

If history is any guide, at this juncture bonds may be a more attractive proposition than equities, at least in the short term.

An episode of DISINFLATION will persist through the next 12 months. We discuss the key inputs suggesting this, and which assets will perform best in that environment.

Our models suggest US 60/40 might generate 5.5% a year over the next 10. We think the average pension fund will need about 9%. What to do? Read on.

Limited upside following gains + expensive valuations + end of cycle signals flashing = turning bearish equities.

Today, many corporates and investors are wondering whether recent spikes in pecuniary wages are indicative of death to their margins and returns, respectively. Many individuals are also working out how to negotiate their next pay rise in this same frenetic environment. I try to bring clarity to all parties.

While we see rich opportunities in specific sub-geographies, we do not expect UK residential real-estate capital values in aggregate to keep pace with inflation.

We asked ChatGPT for some buy and sell signals. Testing its answers revealed a deeper point about the limitations of common investment heuristics.