The Early View

The tariff pause has cemented a collective complacency in markets. But the warning signs are flashing red.

Liberation Day has left markets grappling with recession risks and demand destruction.

The vortex of geopolitical and economic instability leaves markets potentially more fragile than they have been in several months.

Inflation, tech, and Trump’s policies dominate early 2025 and will likely remain the key themes to navigate in the hunt for alpha.

As we move from a year of waiting and speculating, markets will need to navigate new drivers of volatility in 2025.

Most of Donald Trump's policies should be market-friendly, but they come with extra tail risk driven by a potential willingness to break established frameworks.

Leaders signalling unwavering support helps explain rising asset values in the face of increasing global uncertainties. This follows the familiar pattern of postponing real long-term solutions.

As we move into a cutting cycle for most developed market central banks, markets remain something of a Rorschach test for investors: you can see pretty much anything you want to see.

With interest rates and political landscapes shifting, investors also need to navigate the prospect of softening economic growth and uncertainty about the longer-term inflation outlook.

Even though all eyes are on the elections, investors do well to instead focus on the robustness of earnings over the next two quarters.

The zero-interest-rate policies and growing government-debt burden of the past 15 years run counter to capitalism's central tenets. A period of higher rates may promote positive real-borrowing costs, responsible policymaking, and the necessary creative destruction to reinvigorate the economy.

In a world of rising economic and geopolitical uncertainty, the real differentiator between successful and struggling hedge funds might be their adherence to process discipline