After four years of declining deal volumes, 2025 was supposed to be the year mergers and acquisitions roared back. The expectations of a more business-friendly environment, cooling inflation, and supportive interest rates had all the ingredients for a long-overdue dealmaking boom. Instead, companies stayed cautious as trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty dominated headlines.
However, as the dust settles around tariff uncertainty and ‘relative’ clarity is re-established, we are finally seeing tangible signs that the long overdue acceleration in M&A is finally underway.
Global M&A has hit over $2 trillion year-to-date, an increase of more than 30% from last year. July alone delivered North America's strongest month since September 2021, and the third-strongest July on record. So, are we finally seeing the breakout everyone predicted?
Figure 1. US deal lift-off in July
Source: Bloomberg as of 8 September 2025.
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From small deals to mega-mergers
What started as a recovery driven by small and mid-cap transactions is shifting gear. Large deals are back, and cross-border activity, which has been long- subdued by regulatory and political concerns, is gaining momentum.
One of the megadeals announced in July is the Palo Alto/Cyber Ark Software cash-and-stock deal, valuing the three-year old Israeli cybersecurity company at about $25 billion. It will be interesting to see if the deal signals a wave of AI-focused consolidation.
The action isn't confined to one or two sectors either. While industrials and technology led the initial charge, dealmaking is now spreading across most industries and geographies, from the US and Europe to Asia.
Two trends are particularly encouraging for the remainder of the year. First, we're seeing a higher percentage of deals attracting competing bids, which typically means better returns for investors willing to back the right horses. Second, fewer deals are facing shareholder opposition, reducing the risk of transactions falling apart due to investor pushback.
Regulatory winds changing
Furthermore, antitrust risk, which strangled deal flow under the previous administration, is much lower now. Several high-profile transactions that might have faced lengthy reviews or outright blocks have sailed through to completion, sending a clear signal to corporate boardrooms.
Meanwhile, the market has absorbed and adapted to tariff-related volatility. Trade deal negotiations have helped, but more importantly, companies have learned to price in policy uncertainty rather than freezing all major decisions.
The spread story: quality over width
For merger arbitrage and event-driven investors, the volume recovery is obviously welcome news. But deal spreads – the gap between a target's trading price and the offer price – tell a more nuanced story.
Most recently announced deals are high quality, offering attractive risk-adjusted returns even if the spreads aren't the widest we've seen. The tightening reflects market confidence that regulatory hurdles are lower and deals are more likely to close. As volumes continue climbing, we'll likely see some riskier, more controversial transactions enter the pipeline – potentially driving spreads wider for those willing to take on additional risk.
What's next?
Absent major macroeconomic disruptions, current momentum appears well-positioned to continue. Companies have built up cash reserves and strategic rationales during the quiet years. Private equity firms are sitting on record levels of dry powder. And crucially, the regulatory and political backdrop has shifted in favour of dealmaking.
The M&A machine appears to finally be hitting its stride.
Author: Nick Wilcox, Managing Director, Discretionary Equities at Man Group.
Why markets may fear getting what they want
Markets want rate cuts, but they don't want to need rate cuts. That contradiction captures the psychology gripping investors as August's jobs data all but guarantees the Federal Reserve will ease policy next week for a legitimate albeit unpopular reason: the labour market is weakening.
Just 22,000 jobs were created last month, well below the 75,000 expected. Revisions revealed that June actually saw job losses for the first time in over four years – the last negative print came during the pandemic. The three-month average for payroll growth has fallen to 29,000.
Manufacturing has shed 78,000 jobs this year. Federal employment is down 97,000 since January. Long-term unemployment has risen to 25.7% of total joblessness, up from 21.5% last August. When last week's data showed the number of unemployed now exceed the number of job openings, it completed the picture of a labour market that is weakening. As Fed Governor, Chris Waller, warned, when a labour market turns, it can turn fast.
The Fed's narrowing path
A 25-basis point cut next week is virtually certain, and anything larger would signal panic. With three cuts now priced in before year-end, the Fed's focus on supporting the labour market risks coming at the expense of its inflation mandate.
The initial market reaction was predictably positive – bad news is often good news when rate cuts are on the table. But that enthusiasm quickly faded. Investors may welcome easier monetary policy, but they're uncomfortable about why it's needed.
Our base case remains that we are heading toward recessionary conditions, possibly a rolling recession hitting different sectors sequentially. The jobs data suggests that process may already be underway.
Author: Kristina Hooper, Chief Markets Strategist, Man Group.
All data sourced from Bloomberg unless otherwise stated.
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