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Man Group?
Download the report today and discover how investors can build climate resilience into their portfolios.
Get the full picture
It’s crucial to understand that temperature rises will not be distributed in a uniform way. While some countries will see little change in temperatures, others will be profoundly affected – even in optimistic scenarios. Our research employs Man Group calculations to estimate the impact of global warming on GDP per capita growth and how many working days per person may be lost by the year 2100.
Finding the winners and losers of a warming world
A warming world is a reality. Asset owners need now to think seriously about how this radically altered landscape impacts the companies and securities in their portfolios.
As stewards of capital and long-term investors, we need to be clear-eyed about the fact that change is coming and we need to prepare our portfolios accordingly. There will be winners and losers in the climate revolution and new tools are required to negotiate a world whose priorities will be unrecognisably different.
So what should investors do now?
A substantially warmer world requires investors to manage a number of risks including the cost of these even more intense extreme weather events.
Projections from the ‘code red’ assessment report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), show that extreme events that typically occurred once every 10 years in a climate without human influence are now much more likely.
As a result of the world’s 1.2°C rise:
Extreme weather events are now more frequent and more intense
Using proprietary modelling data, this report gives investors a unique look at how economies and businesses alike will be affected by different climate paths and how portfolio resilience to climate risks can be improved.
As investors, we need to recognise this and start thinking now about how to position our portfolios for a future of higher temperatures. In a new report, Man Group climate experts have evaluated the science behind climate change and offer investors an insight into:
We are living in a warming world
Share
Find out more
Source: Estimated cumulative impact on GDP/capita growth due to climate change in 2100. Burke, Hsiang, Miguel (2015). Climate projections from Man AI Climate Change Computation Systems (MACCS) using SSP1-26 scenario from CMIP 6; as of 13 October 2021.
What will be the impact of 2°C warming
in the year 2100?
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, 10-year event frequency predictions calculated relative to average occurrences in a climate without human influence (1850-1900).
In a climate without human influence (1850-1900), these extreme weather events could be expected to occur once every 10 years on average.
Extreme weather event frequency per 10 years
Source: EM-DAT CRED; as of September 2021. Total losses adjusted at the 2019 US dollar value.
2019 – Currowan wildfires, Australia
Over five months, these fires destroyed over 10 million hectares and released as much smoke as a volcanic eruption.
1991 – Cyclone Gorky, Bangladesh
Over 15.4 million people affected by one of the deadliest cyclones on record.
2005 – Hurricane Katrina, US
The most economically damaging natural disaster in history with $164bn in total losses.
1960 – Valdivia Earthquake, Chile
The most powerful earthquake ever recorded, the resulting tsunamis affected New Zealand, Japan, Hawaii and more.
Natural disaster frequency 1960-2021
Droughts are now 0.3 standard deviations drier
Extreme heat spells are now 1.2°C hotter
Heavy precipitation events are now
6.7% wetter
Source: Met Office Hadley Centre, Ed Hawkins, Berkeley Earth. Temperatures reported as anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 average (regions) or the 1971-2000 average (world).
Human influence has warmed the climate at an unprecedented rate
The ways the climate crisis has affected financial markets so far;
The role of climate-focused investment;
How investors might position their portfolios for a warming planet;
Which economies might benefit from rising temperatures.
•
•
•
•
How investors can make better long-term decisions.
Climate Investment: Positioning Portfolios for a Warmer World
Download the report
Location
Company name
Job title
Company email
First name
Last name
Typical losers
Typical winners
While this decade has the lowest number of disasters in the past 62 years, the lack of early warning and response techniques made this decade the most dangerous.
1960-69
550
330
130
0
Natural disasters by year
World Africa Asia Europe North America Oceania South America
Israel
India
Qatar
Canada
Russia
Sweden
Most
common
Storms
Total
damages
$19bn
Total
disasters
602
Select a region to see how temperatures have changed over time:
1970-79
The disasters of the 1970s saw less than half the number of fatalities of the previous decade. However, the increased severity of storms more than doubled the economic cost.
911
Total
disasters
$54bn
Total
damages
Storms
Most
common
Humanitarian relief in the face of natural disasters came to national prominence following the severe droughts of the 1980s.
Storms
Most
common
$184bn
Total
damages
1,801
Total
disasters
1980-89
Increased epidemics, earthquakes and wildfires more than tripled the costs of the previous decade.
Storms
Most
common
$699bn
Total
damages
2,975
Total
disasters
1990-99
The frequency of natural disasters peaked in the early 2000s, coinciding with some of the worst ever recorded including Hurricane Katrina and the Indian Ocean earthquake.
Floods
Most
common
$892bn
Total
damages
4,476
Total
disasters
2000-09
Of the 10 most costly natural disasters in history, half have occurred in the past 12 years alone. Wildfires, flooding and storms have all increased in intensity as a result of global warming, threatening more and more of our communities.
Floods
Most
common
$1,900bn
Total
damages
4,444
Total
disasters
2010-21
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Download the report
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Mali
-53%
Kuwait
-53%
Niger
-54%
Losers
Canada
+61%
Russia
+80%
Finland
+89%
Winners
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report
Climate without human influence (1850-1900)
No human influence
Heavy precipitation and flooding
Extreme heat events
Agricultural droughts
As today’s global temperatures have increased,
so has the frequency of extreme events.
1°C warmer world (today)
Even through limiting temperate rises to two degrees,
extreme heat events are likely to become very common.
2°C warmer world (projected)
Without major changes, nearly every year will contain an extreme heat event that would have occurred once per decade, alongside a high possibility of agricultural and flooding events.
4°C warmer world (projected)
1°C warmer world
2°C warmer world
4°C warmer world
Heavy precipitation and flooding
Extreme heat events
Agricultural droughts
Heavy precipitation and flooding
Extreme heat events
Agricultural droughts
Heavy precipitation and flooding
Extreme heat events
Agricultural droughts
Select a tab to see how extreme weather events are affected by changes in temperature:
Impact on GDP/capita growth
Positively affected
Negatively affected
Hover over the decades to learn more:
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Impact on GDP/capita growth
Source: Estimated labour workdays lost per person (high-risk industries) in 2100. Zivin and Neidell (2014). Man AI Climate Change Computation Systems (MACCS) climate change projections incorporating CMIP 6 SSP1-26 scenario; as of 13 October 2021.
Working days lost per person
30
0
Working days lost to climate change
15
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2.5˚C
-1.5˚C
Relative temperature anomaly
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Find out more
Discover our data-driven approach to Intelligent RI.
Looking to find out more about responsible
investing at Man Group?
Download the report today and discover how investors can build climate resilience into their portfolios.
Get the full picture
Download the report
Source: Estimated labour workdays lost per person (high-risk industries) in 2100. Zivin and Neidell (2014). Man AI Climate Change Computation Systems (MACCS) climate change projections incorporating CMIP 6 SSP1-26 scenario; as of 13 October 2021.
Working days lost per person
30
15
0
Source: Estimated cumulative impact on GDP/capita growth due to climate change in 2100. Burke, Hsiang, Miguel (2015). Climate projections from Man AI Climate Change Computation Systems (MACCS) using SSP1-26 scenario from CMIP 6; as of 13 October 2021.
Impact on GDP/capita growth
Positively affected
Negatively affected
Working days lost to climate change
Impact on GDP/capita growth
Click to interact
Click on the tabs to learn more:
What will be the impact of 2°C warming in the year 2100?
Share this graphic
Israel
India
Qatar
Typical losers
Russia
Sweden
Canada
Typical winners
It’s crucial to understand that temperature rises will not be distributed in a uniform way. While some countries will see little change in temperatures, others will be profoundly affected – even in optimistic scenarios. Our research employs Man Group calculations to estimate the impact of global warming on GDP per capita growth and how many working days per person may be lost by the year 2100.
Finding the winners and losers of a warming world
Download the report
A warming world is a reality. Asset owners need now to think seriously about how this radically altered landscape impacts the companies and securities in their portfolios.
As stewards of capital and long-term investors, we need to be clear-eyed about the fact that change is coming and we need to prepare our portfolios accordingly. There will be winners and losers in the climate revolution and new tools are required to negotiate a world whose priorities will be unrecognisably different.
So what should investors do now?
Share this graphic
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, 10-year event frequency predictions calculated relative to average occurrences in a climate without human influence (1850-1900).
Extreme events every 10 years
3
Heavy precipitation and flooding
9
Extreme heat events
4
Agricultural droughts
Without major changes, nearly every year will contain an extreme heat event that would have occurred once per decade, alongside a high possibility of agricultural and flooding events.
4°C warmer world
(projected)
2
Heavy precipitation and flooding
6
Extreme heat events
2
Agricultural droughts
Even through limiting temperate rises to two degrees,
extreme heat events are likely to become very common.
2°C warmer world
(projected)
1
Heavy precipitation and flooding
3
Extreme heat events
2
Agricultural droughts
As today’s global temperatures have increased,
so has the frequency of extreme events.
1°C warmer world
(today)
1
Heavy precipitation and flooding
1
Extreme heat events
1
Agricultural droughts
In a climate without human influence (1850-1900), these extreme weather events could be expected to occur once every 10 years on average.
Climate without human influence
(1850-1900)
4°C warmer world
2°C warmer world
1°C warmer world
No human influence
Click to interact
Click to see how extreme weather events are affected by changes in temperature:
Extreme weather event frequency per 10 years
Share this graphic
2010-21
2000-09
1990-99
1980-89
1970-79
1960-69
Source: EM-DAT CRED; as of September 2021. Total losses adjusted at the 2019 US dollar value.
Natural disasters by year
0
130
330
550
Click on the decades to learn more:
Natural disaster frequency
1960-2021
2019 – Currowan wildfires, Australia
Over five months, these fires destroyed over 10 million hectares and released as much smoke as a volcanic eruption.
Of the 10 most costly natural disasters in history, half have occurred in the past 12 years alone. Wildfires, flooding and storms have all increased in intensity as a result of global warming, threatening more and more of our communities.
Floods
Most
common
$1,900bn
Total
damages
4,444
Total
disasters
2010-21
2005 – Hurricane Katrina, United States
The most economically damaging natural disaster in history with $164bn in total losses.
The frequency of natural disasters peaked in the early 2000s, coinciding with some of the worst ever recorded including Hurricane Katrina and the Indian Ocean earthquake.
Floods
Most
common
$892bn
Total
damages
4,476
Total
disasters
2000-09
1991 – Cyclone Gorky, Bangladesh
Over 15.4 million people were affected by one of the deadliest cyclones on record.
Increased epidemics, earthquakes and wildfires more than tripled the costs of the previous decade.
Storms
Most
common
$699bn
Total
damages
2,975
Total
disasters
1990-99
1980 – Irpinia earthquake, Italy
With shockwaves felt from Sicily to the northern Po Valley, this devastating earthquake claimed almost 3,000 lives.
Humanitarian relief in the face of natural disasters came to national prominence following the severe droughts of the 1980s.
Storms
Most
common
$184bn
Total
damages
1,801
Total
disasters
1980-89
1977 – Extreme cold, United States
January 1977 was so cold that snow fell all the way to South Florida and for five days the temperature remained at or below freezing for 110 consecutive hours.
The disasters of the 1970s saw less than half the number of fatalities of the previous decade. However, the increased severity of storms more than doubled the economic cost.
Storms
Most
common
$54bn
Total
damages
911
Total
disasters
1970-79
1960 – Valdivia Earthquake, Chile
The most powerful earthquake ever recorded, the resulting tsunamis affected New Zealand, Japan, Hawaii and more.
While this decade has the lowest number of disasters in the past 62 years, the lack of early warning and response techniques made this decade the most dangerous.
Storms
Most
common
$19bn
Total
damages
602
Total
disasters
1960-69
Click to interact
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report
A substantially warmer world requires investors to manage a number of risks including the cost of these even more intense extreme weather events.
Projections from the ‘code red’ assessment report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), show that extreme events that typically occurred once every 10 years in a climate without human influence are now much more likely.
Droughts are now 0.3 standard deviations drier
Extreme heat spells are now 1.2°C hotter
Heavy precipitation events are now
6.7% wetter
As a result of the world’s 1.2°C rise:
Extreme weather events are now more frequent and more intense
Download the report
Source: Met Office Hadley Centre, Ed Hawkins, Berkeley Earth. Temperatures reported as anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 average (regions) or the 1971-2000 average (world).
2.5˚C
-1.5˚C
Relative temperature anomaly
Select a region from the drop-down list to see how temperatures have changed over time:
Human influence has warmed the climate at an unprecedented rate
Click to interact
Share this graphic
Using proprietary modelling data, this report gives investors a unique look at how economies and businesses alike will be affected by different climate paths and how portfolio resilience to climate risks can be improved.
•
•
•
•
The ways the climate crisis has affected financial markets so far;
The role of climate-focused investment;
How investors might position their portfolios for a warming planet;
Which economies might benefit from rising temperatures.
As investors, we need to recognise this and start thinking now about how to position our portfolios for a future of higher temperatures. In a new report, Man Group climate experts have evaluated the science behind climate change and offer investors an insight into:
We are living in a warming world
Scroll to learn more
How investors can make better long-term decisions.
Climate Investment: Positioning Portfolios for a Warmer World
Download the report
